Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Lucas Fernández's avatar

I studied Navitas like a month ago. The main issue I see with it is that their architecture has to be chosen by Nvidia in order for them to have the competitive advantage. If, for whatever reason, that 1 stage voltage reduction ends up not working as expected and a 2 stage voltage transformation is finally adopted, their competitors will eat their lunch. If their arquitecture is chosen, they have the advantage, but we don’t know for how long.

When analysing the metrics of the company, much of the future sales are already anticipated in their market cap. I did some models with the help of chatgpt and, taking into account the guidance given by the management in their company presentation (25 - 35 kUSD / MW), they would have to sell to approximately 5GW of power at 50k USD/MW (250M USD of revenue) and with a P/S of 10 to have a market cap of 2.500 M USD, which is a bit less than their current market cap. Notice that 5GW is a lot of power to feed and that I am using a price/MW higher than the one given by the management. Management may be sandbagging, but it’s worth taking that into account.

I understand that the technology looks attractive and that it may be a breakthrough, but much of the future growth is already anticipated in the stock price. This is why I didn’t take a position in the end in the company.

Hope this information was useful.

9 more comments...

No posts

Ready for more?