The Monopoly Hiding Inside the Memory Shortage
Key takeaways from my 1x1 and a full primer on a compelling investment opportunity
The NAND makers, Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, Kioxia, Sandisk, are earning 80%+ gross margins selling raw wafers into an AI-driven shortage that management believes runs into 2028. At those economics, running an internal controller operation that earns 49% is corporate malpractice. So they’re walking away. Two US NAND makers have publicly exited or de-emphasized mobile. The engineering teams are being redeployed to higher margin ventures. Every wafer they sell to a module maker instead needs a merchant controller bolted to it. If you have the NAND and need a controller, “chances are we’re going to get a call.”
I sat down 1x1 with this company a few weeks back, and we walked through each business opportunity in detail. What I found: two brand-new business lines, enterprise boot drives and enterprise controllers, that could each become double-digit percentages of revenue within two years, stacked on top of a mobile controller franchise where the competitive moat is being poured in concrete right now.
The full report below covers the business model, what they told me in my sit-down, the boot drive opportunity nobody is modeling correctly, the enterprise controller line’s compatibility with NVIDIA’s CMX architecture, my full 2027-2030 base, bull, and bear model, and where I’d be wrong.