$VPG Consolidated Key Takeaways from IR Touchpoints
1. Customer 1 and 2 are both leading Western Humanoid OEMS (Not Asian): After discussions with $VPG IR, I feel incredibly confident that Customer #1 is $TSLA being supplied 15-20 torque sensors per robot, and Customer #2 is Figure being supplied 10 tactile sensors per robot. IR cited that Customer 1 and 2 are ABSOLUTELY, MOST DEFINITELY Top 5 Western Humanoid OEMs and that if he said their names, I would know them well. When matching timelines dating back to 2023 and taking in all the information available, I feel confident in my conclusions (See my detailed work in other tweets).
2. Humanoid Revenue Target: Management has a very conservative estimate of $6M in Humanoid revenue for 2026, and with the momentum they're seeing, they believe that could be quite conservative. Management has already drawn up plans to expand existing manufacturing sites (Opening new lines) to meet a humanoid hockey stick ramp and are well prepared for when it happens.
3. Refreshed Financial Targets: VPG will release updated 3-5 year financial targets next month. We can expect improvements over the previous benchmarks of low-teens annual revenue growth, 45% gross margin, and 18% operating margin.
4. Sensor Economics: IR cited that Customer 1's revenue per robot would likely fall closer to $400 when they reach volume production scale (Cited as being 5k-10k+ robots per week vs. prototyping being considered 10k per month.) The $400 volume production revenue per robot cited for Customer 1 does not necessarily apply to Customer 2. Tactile sensors in the hands, which present a complex dexterity and weight challenge, are generally more expensive than torque sensors. VPG stated that (at least Customer 1) sensors at production scale would be all at a gross margin slightly below the core business target, but it would be made up for in operating income, as it does not take additional costs to support that ramp.
5. Cross-Selling Momentum: Exploratory commercial discussions regarding cross-selling torque and tactile sensors to existing customers have occurred within the last 6-9 months, though these have not yet reached the formal design phase.
6. Data Center Growth: Management identifies a growing opportunity for precision resistors in optical lasers. The company secured $2 million in orders in 2025 from a leading laser manufacturer, benefiting from infrastructure tailwinds at firms like Cisco $CSCO, Ciena $CIEN, and $LITE Lumentum.
7. Physical AI Roadmap: Beyond humanoids, management believes the broader Physical AI market will become a major growth driver over a 3-5 year horizon as manufacturing and logistics demand precise real-world data collection.
Call 1 Write-Up: open.substack.com/pub/9ventures/…
Call 2 Write-Up: open.substack.com/pub/9ventures/…
How are you thinking about the fact that Tesla is not purchasing both tactile and torque from VPG?
I feel like this is a massive signal that they have already in-housed the hand sensors that are "good enough" for their applications.
Furthermore, if Figure only needs tactile sensors but no torque sensors that would also signal to me that either 1. it is possible to in house the torque sensors too or 2. there is another viable torque sensor supplier.
Both of those facts make me extremely weary to put long term faith into the revenue opportunity at Tesla.